As for the two soon-to-be governors, while it became clear over the past month or two that McDonnell was going to destroy the mealy-mouth VA Senator Creigh Deeds, the Christie versus Goldman-Sachs Democratic Governor John Corzine race got alarmingly interesting and was pretty damned tight down the homestretch.
Still, once Christie handily dispatched the Americans for Prosperity candidate, Bogota New Jersey Mayor, Steve Lonegan in the NJ GOP gubernatorial primary, it was Christie's race to lose. And he hung on to not lose it, thus striking a blow against corrupt lunacy. Or something like that.
Perhaps more importantly for national GOP prospects in 2010, both Deeds and Corzine were defeated in spite (maybe because) of, heavy campaign lifting done by GM CEO Obama on their respective behalfs.
But what about the implications for Maryland in 2010? What do the Christie and McDonnell victories mean for the politics of the Free State? A lot of folks seem to have a lot of questions on their minds - one in particular, of course, that being,...
Well, I can't think of it now, but damned if it didn't take too long for certain MD GOP events to start unfolding:
The day after the Christie and McDonnell victories, MD GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Pappas drops out of the race and endorses Larry Hogan, Appointments Secretary under former Governor Bob Ehrlich, for the MD GOP nomination.
Hogan, who is in the race until and unless Ehrlich decides to Drop That Skull and jump in himself, thanks Pappas for the endorsement and praises Pappas for having gotten in the race and building a solid grassroots effort.
In addition, in response to the Christie and McDonnell wins, 2006 Ehrlich campaign manager and all around "Par-Tay activist," Bo Harmon advises Hogan on Facebook to “Get ready. You’re next.”
Oh, yeah! I remember that other question now. It's pretty much...
Well, in the words of one elected official with whom I spoke late Tuesday night, "It's going to be a lot harder for Bob (Ehrlich) to say no (to running for governor in 2010) now. He's been saying for months that New Jersey and Virginia were going to go a long way in helping him decide (whether to run)."
Indeed. As a big part of Keeping the Buzz Alive, the former Loved Gov has been using that line - so much so that I received a number of messages yesterday from Hardcore Ehrlich-ites saying things like "See, NOW he's going to run!"
So, the perception among some very vocal MD GOPers is that Mr. Ehrlich is going to now run for governor in 2010, no ifs, ands or buts. Despite their wishful-thinking sentiments, however, I happened to catch the former governor on WBAL's Ron Smith Show Wednesday afternoon - and wonder how many of them did as well. Smith asked Hamlet what, in the wake of Tuesday's election results, he was going to do. Gotta tell you, even with the Christie and McDonnell wins, Ehrlich sounded reticent. At best.
Despite the fact the most recent Clarus Research Group poll (which shows Governor O'Malley leading Ehrlich 47-40 in a rematch) had O'Malley getting under 50% - which is never good for an incumbent, Ehrlich's reticence leads me to believe two things:
(1) I do not think Ehrlich expected Christie to take out Corzine in New Jersey - and because he's been touting the Christie and McDonnel elections as being being barometers for him, the Christie victory adds increased pressure to make a decision, and:
(2) At this point, the former Gov has no fire for this race. He personally does not want to run, but is considering doing so at the urging of his Echo Chamber and the Cult of Bob types who insist Bob is the "only one" who could beat Martin O'Malley in 2010. Hell even Bob Ehrlich doesn't think he is the only one who could beat Governor O'Malley next year. Don't believe me? Listen to Ehrlich, himself, who said that announced GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Hogan is "one of the few guys in Maryland who could win" against O'Malley. Yes, Mr. Ehrlich said "One of the few."
Regardless, whoever is the eventual MD GOP nominee for governor in 2010, although I expect the anti-government movement to not only continue but pick up steam, it must be stressed that 2009 is not 2010. Additionally, Maryland is most certainly not Virginia as concerns the respective states' political dynamics. For that matter, Maryland isn't New Jersey, Martin O'Malley (Governing Mag's Governor of the Year) is no John Corzine (Are you kidding? Where do you start with THAT guy?), and Bob Ehrlich circa 2009-2010 isn't Chris Christie.
A few weeks ago, I was growing more and more convinced that Mr. Ehrlich was, indeed, going to give it another go. Now, though I still think that he likely will run - with or without his knowledge, there are some hilariously inept attempts out there trying to clear the ground behind the scenes for him - I found the hesitation in both his voice and comments on Ron Smith's show to be instructive as to why he continues the Hamlet act.
And then there is Larry Hogan, who is getting encouragement - and loving it - from many quarters. Unlike the former governor, Hogan is chomping at the bit for a run against O'Malley. And just as Ehrlich is no Christie - Ehrlich has a record to defend - Hogan is no Ehrlich.
Though it's a given that Bob Ehrlich would win any MD GOP primary he enters, maybe Hogan simply needs to say he is in the MD GOP gubernatorial race regardless of what Bob Ehrlich does or doesn't do. It would certainly help battle the whisperings of "seatwarmer," and "mirage" that occasionally still bubble up around Hogan's candidacy.
For the MD GOP, it would be so much better to have Mr. Hogan with fire in his belly than to continue hanging hope on a man who, as of now, appears to not want to run every bit as much as he fears losing if he does.
25 comments:
We're now in the 4th Quarter, down by two touchdowns and Ehrlich is taking a knee... Get this guy off the field.
TPOD -- Yep. Bob used to have the chutzpah Christie showed us this year. Thats not the case anymore. I didnt hear Smith yesterday but maybe your guess is right that Bob doesnt really want to make the race in 2010. If thats the case he should say so. Say something Bob!!!
Ehrlich is the type who would rather take on tiny old ladies.
"Hilariously inept attempts....." Like Uncle Jeff and Ryan getting banned numerous times from public forums for being stupid?
perhaps senatorjames can be persuaded to run for governor.
Reticent you say? I thought Bob sounded petulant and disappointed on Smith yesterday. He was pouty.
I think you nailed it. Ehrlich is afraid to lose. If O'Malley beats him this time, when the climate is more favorable to Republicans, he will have no one to blame but himself. And we know nothing is ever Bob's fault.
POD - This would be very funny if it wasn't so sad. Viva Hogan!!
No one wants to lose a campaign, but having a pathological fear of losing is something else entirely. Sadly, that is what we are dealing with here in Bob Ehrlich. It is truly pathetic.
Larry Hogan really is the man on the spot here. If Ehrlich does get in the race and Hogan bags it, his credibility is gone forever. But if Hogan runs to win and stays in through the entire primary, he will come out smelling like a rose, win or lose.
The thing the Maryland Republican Party needs more then anything is genuine leadership. But that is the one thing we do not have. Not yet.
Larry Hogan lost his credibility when he committed perjury.
Maybe Jeff "senator james" Werner can be Ehrlich's running mate.
Anon 12:17,
Would Ryan "yellow timbers" Nawrocki be their campaign manager or would that exceed the limit for anger management issues?
Whats with the people posting as Anonymous?
Personally, Im disappointed that Mike Pappas stepped out the race. I dont know, nor have ever met Hogan. I would have voted for Mike Pappas...What happened to a primary election? Ya know those Democrats have em all the time...where the voters of the party choose the candidate they want to represent them?
Why does Pappas or Hogan have to step out if Bob runs? Thats bull-oney!
Personally, I like Bob Ehrlich....but Ill say it again....making the party wait to see what he will do is gettin old.
You guys are jealous of Ryan Nawrocki. It's not his fault he's lucky enough to have an employer who lets him post on the Sun forums from work hours at a time.
I think Bob Ehrlich wants to run. I think the big question mark is what does November 2010 look like.
Two years a Washington Post poll of all adults showed Ehrlich down 20. Two months ago a Gonzalez poll of registered voters showed Ehrlich down 11. Two days ago a Clarus poll of registered voters which oversampled the young showed Ehrlich down 7. Likely voters must be within the margin or better. How does he not run? It is the best chance he will have imo.
The wicket ticket: Hogan/[Kendel]Ehrlich 2010
Joe,
Even though Mr. Lonegan lost the GOP primary, Americans for Prosperity was the big winner in New Jersey. I don't think they worried too much about which conservative Republican would finish off Gov. Corzine, as long as their 18-month seige succeeded.
Sadly for me, we'll never know exactly how much of the Koch family fortune AFP poured on New Jersey because they operate outside of normal political disclosure requirements as a dichotomous not-for-profit, but we'll get some scant hints around this time next year when their 2009 tax returns become available.
In the meantime, google Americans for Prosperity New Jersey Corzine for an eye popping glimpse at the story behind Corzine's dispatch that neither instate scribblers, national pundits, nor, apparently, establishment Democratic campaign consultants sniffed out.
If you're too lazy to click all the links, this single TV spot says it all.
The New Jersey race disappointed me, and not just for the obvious reason. I was also disappointed that Mr. Christie beat Mr. Lonegan because the latter is actually loopy enough to follow through on the promise that both Republicans made to cut taxes in a state facing a projected $9 billion budget gap next year. That's 25% of New Jersey's operating budget. Let that sink in: One out of every four dollars New Jersey plans to spend next year won't be there.
Governor-elect Christie started backing off on the tax cut question before Election Day, but Mr. Lonegan was dead serious about actually cutting taxes. Next year. In New Jersey. That's a show I would have paid money to see.
- Lebowitz
Hogan/Kendel 2010?
How would they explain the Perjurer's claim he never met with Steffen with "We need you, Ken"?
Greetings, all!
Sorry I've been so out of pocket lately - just the way it falls some times.
To begin with, I agree - and as I intimated Hogan is the man on the spot here, at least at present. Larry Hogan could do himself so much better if he flatly stated he was in - regardless.
As for the question of why all the anonymous posters,...well, early on my blog required only named posters. Then I got a ton of emails from people who wanted to post - but didn't want to leave their names (I get a ton of tips that way, too). So I open the blog up to allow anonymous postings. Regardless, thank YOU for posting.
Yeah, I like Mike, too. Just not the time or year.
I hope Ryan Nawrocki's feeling the love for him on this blog. Just damn! As for senatorjames on the Sun Forums, has there ever been a more incoherent, unintelligible, moron - from either side - who's posted? Wow. That guy redefines the meaning of the word "idiot." Talk about Mattress Discounters ;)
I have heard nothing about Kendel Ehrlich running with Larry Hogan. Might have to pull out my Tarot Cards to see how THAT plays out.
And for the record, I don't think "Ken" needs me any more...
Steve (Lebowitz) - Lonegan is loopy. Christie is much more pragmatic. And, personally, I think he has higher ambitions. And yes, I am that lazy - so I will click on only the one TV spot. Shoot me an email.
"One out of every four dollars New Jersey plans to spend next year won't be there"
Then cut spending. But no worries, Obama has spent money that isn't there. or at least let China buy IOU's on future generations.
Ah, yes...senatorjames (aka Jeff Werner). He was sent by Ehrlich's Keystone Kommunicators to hunt for phantom dissenters on the Sun forums.
He's clearly one of those people who's so stupid that he's unable to glean just how stupid he is. His poor spelling and indecipherable prose provides ample proof of that. So is the fact that he relies on Greg Massoni for guidance. They're like a retard version of the evil Sith from Star Wars.
There is nothing to fear but fear itself. Bob, fears losing, thus I fear his fear and could never support him. Scared candidates don't win.
Like a Mike Tyson, Bobby was unbeatable, fearless when he battled the likes of Connie DeJulious or KKT. Then he met a man willing to stand and fight back. He got beat. Beat bad.
Now his handlers are trying to get him back in the ring (BC THEY need the payday, the prestige), his confidence shattered and he doesnt want to go. If he gets back in the ring, his career, like Tysons will be ended by an Irishman, not a McNeely but an O'Malley. Show some courage Bobby, get out of Hogan's way. Your day has passed.
According to Greg Kane, Ehrlich gave his concession speech in front of Professor buttkisser's class at Towson.
"Is there a compelling argument," Vatz asked the guest speaker addressing his persuasion class, "against your running for governor in 2010?"
Vatz put that question to a man who's already been governor of Maryland: Republican Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., who in 2002 was elected the state's first GOP chief executive in 36 years. And, as if to prove he's not a long-winded guy, Ehrlich made his answer exquisitely brief.
"Yes," he answered.
It was a typical Ehrlich visit to Vatz's persuasion class, a tradition that goes back about 17 years. In previous talks, Ehrlich has engaged Towson University students in lively discussions about abortion, record-label warnings, perjury, capital punishment, the war on terror and its effect on civil liberties, American multiculturalism, race relations, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
This past Tuesday, Ehrlich was at it again, only this time the topic was, appropriately, health care reform. Specifically, Ehrlich challenged Vatz's students to answer this question: "Should the government force you, the young and healthy, to buy health insurance?"
After two students answered with a resounding "Yes!" Ehrlich asked, "Are there any libertarians present outraged by these answers?"
Libertarians should be, and America's dwindling body of federalists most certainly are. They've already served notice on the former constitutional law professor sitting in the White House that the federal government forcing anyone to buy anything is an expansion of power expressly forbidden it by the Constitution.
It was while students were answering Ehrlich's question that Vatz interjected his. After Ehrlich gave his brief response, he turned it over once again to the students, asking them to give him the pros and cons of his running for governor against incumbent Martin O'Malley in 2010. When they were done, Ehrlich gave four reasons why he SHOULDN'T run in 2010, his experience as the state's chief executive notwithstanding.
First, Ehrlich said, he was the state's first Republican governor since the late Spiro Agnew won in 1966. And Agnew's election itself was an anomaly.
Second, Maryland, Ehrlich noted, has become even MORE Democratic since he lost to O'Malley in the 2006 election. On that point Ehrlich was simply being much too kind to Maryland's electorate. I would have said Maryland has become even more HOPELESSLY Democratic since 2006.
The third reason, Ehrlich said, was that President Obama won Maryland by a huge margin. And the fourth is that O'Malley will have a ton of money backing him.
My take -- and I mentioned this to him after his talk -- is that in 2006 Ehrlich won every subdivision but five: Baltimore City, Howard County, Charles County, Prince George's County and Montgomery County.
"Which of those five would you need to win in 2010 to put you back in the Governor's Mansion?" I asked him.
"Howard County," he answered.
"Can you?" I asked.
"Don't know," he answered.
Greg Kane, as is more often than not the case, nails it. That does sound like an Ehrlich concession speech, doesn't it?
Fine. That being the case, Bob Ehrlich should man up and bow out - get out of Hogan's way as is so succinctly worded above.
Thanks, all! Have a grand weekend!
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